At the dawn of the 20th century, who could have foreseen the space shuttle, the atom bomb, the Internet or the European Union? Who could have guessed that the United States would become the world"s sole military superpower, that most American women would work outside the home, or that doctors would be able to give their patients new hips or even hearts? Few if any of the most important changes that have taken place over the past 100 years could have been predicted in 1900.
What about the next century? Has our foresight improved enough to let us predict at least a few of the changes in store? We couldn't resist asking several UNH faculty members to go out on a limb and tell us what they think the next big thing in their field will be. Their predictions are confined to the near future and based on recent developments and emerging trends. They aren"t as startling as the revelations you'll read in the supermarket tabloids, but we expect they will turn out to be a whole lot more reliable. TechnologyRoy Torbert, physicist and dean of the College of Engineering and Physical Sciences, speculates about a range of possible changes, from accessing the Web by direct neural connection to the colonization of space. "Assuming the human race is still here in the next couple hundred years, I think we might see something as radical as microchips surgically implanted in the brain to provide a far more sophisticated way of connecting to the Web—through electronic connection to the nerves," he says. This technology would enable people to instantly access and sort through most of the information that exists on any subject.
Human beings seem to be genetically programmed to desire growth and expansion, Torbert maintains, and this will likely lead to a crisis in overpopulation. "The Earth is almost at the limits of the population it can sustain; already the impacts are seen in the degradation of the fisheries, the amount of energy consumption and the output of pollution. We will not be able to survive a doubling of the population without great catastrophes such as widespread disease and starvation that will, in effect, bring the numbers under control," he says. "Or we'll create colonies in space to relieve the pressure of population growth."
Rather than colonizing planets or moons, Torbert thinks self-sufficient communities will inhabit floating space laboratories that orbit the Earth, sun or other planets. Space travel between these colonies will be commonplace, as expensive trips to and back from the Earth become less necessary. He also expects that if extraterrestrial life exists, human beings will begin to make contact with it before the end of the century.
In the nearer future, Torbert believes we'll utilize the oceans much more extensively for food production, the raising of fish and plants. "Such a huge fraction of the Earth's surface is covered by ocean, and the unregulated use of it, as we're doing, is leading to disaster. I think we'll come to depend much more on aquaculture as the land available for food production begins to disappear." Scientists will come up with more efficient, renewable energy sources and solve the fusion energy problem. "We'll have a lot more access to energy, but we'll find that the planet won't be able to take it," he warns. Yet transportation will become cleaner, faster and safer, Torbert believes, perhaps through the use of elevated tube trains that propel vehicles through electromagnetic induction, a technology already in development for superconducting trains.
BiotechnologyStartling advances in the young field of genetic engineering could change the nature of how we diagnose and treat diseases, according to Subhash Minocha, professor of plant biology and genetics. "There are DNA-based technologies in the pipeline that may allow us to replace the defective gene in a fetus suffering from a disease such as cystic fibrosis," Minocha says. "As we sequence the whole human DNA, the genome analysis will tell us about how we evolved and how different we are from our ancestors.
"As neuroscience crosses psychiatry, we're more able to interpret the brain's functions and see what's happening in the brains of the depressed or the happy," he continues. "But questions will arise as to how far we should go in modifying human behavior." He also suspects we'll gain a better understanding of why humans age, although we'll struggle with whether we should tinker with the process.
Products such as natural lactose-free milk will emerge through genetic engineering, as well as foods with properties that ward off a variety of metabolic diseases, Minocha believes. And he foresees that plant-based products such as methanol, ethanol and biodegradable plastics will become common substitutes for petroleum-based products.
The EnvironmentJohn Aber, professor of natural resources, believes the effects of our failure to protect the environment will be unpleasantly evident by the end of the century. "There are already several predictions of what the environment of the late 21st century will look like," he says. Current projections suggest that the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere could double, and the temperature at the surface of the Earth might increase by several degrees, potentially causing significant shifts in rainfall, drought, vegetation zones, and agricultural and forest production.
"Progressive and rapid change in the global atmosphere is clearly a major environmental concern for the next century, but it is one that has already attracted international attention and for which serious and workable solutions have been proposed," Aber says. "Many of these solutions involve doing what we do best: improving technologies, altering patterns of transportation, developing technological fixes. We may be able to anticipate, and mitigate, the effects."
Yet Aber fears that two older, interrelated concerns—population growth and land use--may pose even more serious threats to the global environment. On a planet that now supports more than six billion human beings, "We face the permanent challenge of increasing the per capita standard of living with a continually rising tide of numbers," he says. "The fact that population is increasing in parts of the world that can least support the increase raises the specter of widening disparities in wealth among nations, with increasing potential for unrest." Changing New HampshireNew Hampshire's popular image as a rural state will be replaced by the new reality of its suburban lifestyle, according to Doug Hall, executive director of the New Hampshire Center for Public Policy. "People think of New Hampshire as rural, but the fact is we're increasingly a suburban state, particularly in the south," Hall explains. "There will likely be a continuing migration to the southern parts of the state as farming is no longer a major economic factor and as the wood-products industry becomes less and less viable in the North."
The demographics of the state will change dramatically, Hall predicts, both in terms of age and ethnicity. "By 2020, we'll see a doubling or tripling of the older population, people in need of services due to their frailty. There'll be very little change in the number of school-age children, and we'll be constructing as many accommodations for the elderly as we're now constructing schools."
Within 20 years, one-third to one-half of the population of many of New Hampshire's major cities will be Hispanic, an acceleration of a trend that has already begun, Hall observes. "New Hampshire has been a very homogeneous state for 100 years, with the exception of a major immigration of French Canadians early in the last century. Since the 1960s, a wave of people from Central and South America has been moving to the state, and I expect an exponential increase in the next century." The FamilyThe American family will become much more diverse in the 21st century, says Kristine Baber, associate professor of family studies. "We can expect more diversity of all types. In addition to traditional families, we'll see a growing number of kin networks, made up of people who choose to share their everyday lives outside of legal relationships. There will be more single-parent families, including people who make thoughtful, planned decisions to have a child without a legal partner, and more children parented by gay and lesbian couples."
Among heterosexual couples, traditional gender roles will become increasingly blurred. "With more control over their own economic resources, women expect more equality in their relationships," Baber explains. "They're able to negotiate more equal involvement for both partners in the work that needs to be done at home, and they're more financially able to leave unsatisfactory or abusive relationships.
"With people living longer, families will include more generations—grandparents and great-grandparents. Where there's been divorce, step-children, step-parents and even step-grandparents will contribute to greater variety in family structures," she says.
Baber also expects greater economic disparity between families, with a growing number having to struggle to provide necessities for their children. "In our society, people with educational and occupational resources will have great opportunities to increase their wealth, and those without will fall further behind," she says.
"I'm very optimistic about families; they change and accommodate and are very dynamic. But families are changing more quickly than our institutions. It's important that we have a good understanding of how our institutions can support all types of families and nurture healthy children." EducationAssistant professor of education Eleanor Abrams believes that education is going to be less bound by location and more reliant on communications technology. "What's evolving are schools without walls," she says. "Students at many different sites who are interested in the same subject are doing online studies. Instead of going to the libraries, students are going to the Web, and it's opening the world to them, the chance to gain access to the most relevant and timely research."
Teachers will take on the role of coaches in the classrooms of the future, helping students to analyze information critically. "Teachers haven't grown up with this technology, and it will take a while for them to get used to it. But good teaching is good teaching; technology can accentuate the subject matter and help a teacher to stimulate student learning," Abrams adds.
Students in the future will be more connected to the global community, but may be less tied to their own, Abrams suspects. "They'll have to develop skills to process and sift through large amounts of good and bad information. They'll also need to be adaptable, and ideally they'll emerge as lifelong learners—or at least as lifelong adapters."
The Global EconomyDeclining barriers to international trade will play a huge role in determining the direction of the nation's economy in the next century, according to Michael D. Goldberg, associate professor of economics. The obvious benefits of globalization include faster economic growth, cheaper and higher-quality goods, and improved transportation and communication. Yet opponents of globalization fear that it can also lead to erosion of human rights, degradation of the environment, a decline in labor standards, job losses and the rise of multinational companies powerful enough to finance military dictators and stymie democratic processes.
How this nation fares in the global economy will be determined largely by the policies we maintain toward international trade, according to Goldberg. "We must determine whether to prevent the march of globalization by refusing to lower barriers further. But if we do decide to lower barriers, then we must determine whether to tie in guarantees of human rights and higher environmental and labor standards."
Goldberg maintains that increasing globalization will ultimately benefit the United States. "Free trade in goods, services and capital creates more business and employment opportunities and allows countries to raise their standards of living. It leads to certain jobs relocating abroad, but also to jobs coming here from abroad. The net number of jobs will increase in the United States," he says.
Goldberg is unsure whether it will be possible to diminish the negative effects of globalization around the world. "On the one hand, businesses can use political and social processes to work against the interests of the environment, labor and human rights," he says. "On the other hand, globalization will help countries to grow and reach higher standards of living. It is an empirical fact that as countries reach higher standards of living, they put in place stronger safeguards for those interests." Philosophy and EthicsWillem deVries, professor of philosophy, sees a significant trend in the growing demand for applied philosophy, especially ethics. "Things are changing so fast, we're having trouble keeping up. As rapid technological change opens up new possibilities for us, we often outrun the reach of the policies we've relied on to keep us within the bounds of morality," he says.
"The tremendous growth in electronic media creates real problems in applying the concepts of free speech and privacy. It threatens (or promises) significant changes in the workplace and perhaps even in our democratic processes. But technological change is not the only reason we need to rethink old policies in the face of new challenges: in the post-Cold War world, how can we best encourage democratic governments across the globe?"
Clearly, the 21st century will be a period of rapid change, for better or worse, and how well mankind and the planet fare may depend on the values we hold. DeVries believes—although he admits he might be biased—the time is right for a return to prominence for philosophers. "People who can combine philosophical sophistication in ethics with significant expertise in such subjects as medicine, biotechnology, electronic media, engineering, foreign affairs and law will be increasingly in demand," he predicts. "We will need their help as we try to weave a sensible path through the thickets of a complex, changing world."
Kimberly Swick Slover is a free-lance writer.