Most of the high-energy particles never reach the Earth's surface. Our planet's magnetic field provides excellent shielding, and many of the remaining particles are absorbed by the atmosphere. But there is also the solar wind -- a plasma breeze, if you will, that is blowing by us all the time.

Coronal mass ejections produce a stronger solar wind -- more like a gale -- that distorts the magnetosphere, compressing it and generating electricity. "Our high tension lines are like antennae for these electric currents. The result can be a big surge of power in the transmission lines, which is too much for the transformers. They burn or blow up, and the power grid fails as a result," Möbius says.

That's what can happen to power on the ground. But above all those protective layers is where our high-tech global village is particularly vulnerable. "The bending and warping of the magnetosphere due to the onslaught of a coronal mass ejection can cause a variety of problems for sensitive instruments on satellites," Möbius notes. In some instances, the electric surges short out electrical systems, or the radiation damages computer memory, potentially leaving us devoid of pagers, cell phones, long-distance phone service, television and other communications that rely on satellites.

But the news is not all bad, Möbius points out. "With enough warning, power companies can segment their transmission lines and keep the entire grid from crashing. The result might be temporary brownouts in some areas, but that's better than losing the whole grid," he observes. And given enough warning, satellites can be placed in standby mode, reducing the chance of damage. "We still lose the service of the satellite temporarily, and it costs the operators money, but it's better than losing a multimillion-dollar instrument," he observes.

We already have the technology in space to give us the warning we need, Möbius says. UNH has instruments on two satellites -- SOHO (the Solar Heliospheric Observatory) and (ACE) Advanced Composition Explorer -- which can give up to an hour's warning that a coronal mass ejection is headed our way.

"But not all mass ejections produce the same effect, so we are still in the realm of guesswork when it comes to forecasting what the effects will be," Möbius admits. "We are working on improving our forecasting."

That will require lots of data, which Möbius and others receive from ACE and SOHO and eight other satellites. "By combining data from all of these satellites, we hope to develop very accurate models of what happens on Earth during a solar event. But it's very much like developing models for predicting weather on Earth," Möbius cautions. "You have to test the models against actual events to see if your predictions are right, and then make adjustments. So it will be a long process."

-- Bill Burtis

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