Features

The Next Big Thing
Page 2 of 3

The Environment

John Aber, professor of natural resources, believes the effects of our failure to protect the environment will be unpleasantly evident by the end of the century. "There are already several predictions of what the environment of the late 21st century will look like," he says. Current projections suggest that the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere could double, and the temperature at the surface of the Earth might increase by several degrees, potentially causing significant shifts in rainfall, drought, vegetation zones, and agricultural and forest production.

"Progressive and rapid change in the global atmosphere is clearly a major environmental concern for the next century, but it is one that has already attracted international attention and for which serious and workable solutions have been proposed," Aber says. "Many of these solutions involve doing what we do best: improving technologies, altering patterns of transportation, developing technological fixes. We may be able to anticipate, and mitigate, the effects."

Yet Aber fears that two older, interrelated concerns—population growth and land use--may pose even more serious threats to the global environment. On a planet that now supports more than six billion human beings, "We face the permanent challenge of increasing the per capita standard of living with a continually rising tide of numbers," he says. "The fact that population is increasing in parts of the world that can least support the increase raises the specter of widening disparities in wealth among nations, with increasing potential for unrest."

Changing New Hampshire

New Hampshire's popular image as a rural state will be replaced by the new reality of its suburban lifestyle, according to Doug Hall, executive director of the New Hampshire Center for Public Policy. "People think of New Hampshire as rural, but the fact is we're increasingly a suburban state, particularly in the south," Hall explains. "There will likely be a continuing migration to the southern parts of the state as farming is no longer a major economic factor and as the wood-products industry becomes less and less viable in the North."

The demographics of the state will change dramatically, Hall predicts, both in terms of age and ethnicity. "By 2020, we'll see a doubling or tripling of the older population, people in need of services due to their frailty. There'll be very little change in the number of school-age children, and we'll be constructing as many accommodations for the elderly as we're now constructing schools."

Within 20 years, one-third to one-half of the population of many of New Hampshire's major cities will be Hispanic, an acceleration of a trend that has already begun, Hall observes. "New Hampshire has been a very homogeneous state for 100 years, with the exception of a major immigration of French Canadians early in the last century. Since the 1960s, a wave of people from Central and South America has been moving to the state, and I expect an exponential increase in the next century."

The Family

The American family will become much more diverse in the 21st century, says Kristine Baber, associate professor of family studies. "We can expect more diversity of all types. In addition to traditional families, we'll see a growing number of kin networks, made up of people who choose to share their everyday lives outside of legal relationships. There will be more single-parent families, including people who make thoughtful, planned decisions to have a child without a legal partner, and more children parented by gay and lesbian couples."

Among heterosexual couples, traditional gender roles will become increasingly blurred. "With more control over their own economic resources, women expect more equality in their relationships," Baber explains. "They're able to negotiate more equal involvement for both partners in the work that needs to be done at home, and they're more financially able to leave unsatisfactory or abusive relationships.

"With people living longer, families will include more generations—grandparents and great-grandparents. Where there's been divorce, step-children, step-parents and even step-grandparents will contribute to greater variety in family structures," she says.

Baber also expects greater economic disparity between families, with a growing number having to struggle to provide necessities for their children. "In our society, people with educational and occupational resources will have great opportunities to increase their wealth, and those without will fall further behind," she says.

"I'm very optimistic about families; they change and accommodate and are very dynamic. But families are changing more quickly than our institutions. It's important that we have a good understanding of how our institutions can support all types of families and nurture healthy children."


Page: < Prev 1 2 3 Next >

 Easy to print version